GSK Raises Forecast on Vaccine Performance and New Myelofibrosis Drug

GSK experienced significant growth in the first quarter of 2024, driven largely by its robust vaccine portfolio and the launch of a new drug for myelofibrosis. CEO Emma Walmsley expressed optimism about the company's performance, citing a "strong start" and expectations for continued excellence throughout the year.

Vaccine sales were a major contributor, increasing by 12% to reach £2.3 billion ($2.9 billion). Shingrix, the company's prominent shingles vaccine, saw a 13% rise in revenue, bringing in £945 million. Additionally, Arexvy, a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, generated £182 million in sales, maintaining approximately two-thirds of the vaccination market share in the United States. However, sales of Arexvy were somewhat below projections due to expected seasonality, as noted by Shore Capital analyst Sean Conroy.

Another highlight was the myelofibrosis treatment Ojjaara. Approved by the FDA last September with a broader label than anticipated, Ojjaara posted quarterly sales of £52 million ($65 million), surpassing consensus estimates of about $31 million.

Overall, GSK's revenue grew by 6% to £7.4 billion, although profits fell by 34% to £1.1 billion over the same period. The company adjusted its full-year sales growth forecast, now expecting it to be at the upper end of its previously projected 5% to 7% range, on a constant exchange rate basis. Operating profit growth is now anticipated to be between 9% and 11%, an increase from the prior estimate of 7% to 10%.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Murphy suggested that GSK's updated guidance appears conservative, allowing the company the flexibility to raise forecasts later in the year.

In summary, GSK's strong performance in the first quarter of 2024, bolstered by its vaccine sales and the successful launch of Ojjaara, has led to an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year. With solid revenue growth and a strategic approach to market dynamics, the company is well-positioned for continued success.