Vertex Raises Sales Forecast as Gene Therapy Casgevy Gains Traction

Vertex Pharmaceuticals has increased its full-year sales forecast, expecting revenues between $10.65 billion and $10.85 billion, an upward adjustment of $100 million from its previous guidance. This optimistic outlook stems from the company's solid performance in its cystic fibrosis (CF) portfolio and the promising launch of its gene therapy, Casgevy.

In the second quarter, Vertex reported revenues of $2.65 billion, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year. The company attributes this rise to consistent growth in its CF products and the early success of Casgevy. The new sales forecast reflects the company's expectation for continuous growth in CF therapies and the anticipated uptake of Casgevy in its approved indications.

Casgevy, recently approved for treating sickle cell disease in December and beta thalassemia in January, is gradually gaining traction. Vertex is expanding its patient base, with around 20 patients having started their treatment journey through the cell collection process. The company is also working diligently to get treatment centers operational, aiming to activate about 75 centers globally, with more than 35 already active.

The number of treatment centers and cell collections has grown substantially over the past three months. In April, Vertex had 25 centers active and five patients had their cells collected in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East. This rapid increase in cell collections aligns with analysts' expectations of achieving a full-year consensus of around $54 million in Casgevy sales.

Vertex has identified approximately 35,000 potential Casgevy patients in the U.S. and Europe, with an additional 23,000 eligible patients in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Analysts at William Blair anticipate that sales will pick up in the third quarter, with a significant increase expected in late 2024 and early 2025. They currently forecast full-year revenue to be $81.4 million, slightly down from their initial expectation of $84.4 million, but still view the sales opportunities in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as underappreciated.

While waiting for Casgevy sales to ramp up, Vertex continues to rely on its widely popular CF drug, Trikafta, and other CF treatments. Trikafta sales alone accounted for $2.45 billion in the quarter, making up the majority of the company's total revenues. The remaining $196 million came from other CF products, including Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko.

The increase in Vertex's revenue guidance demonstrates the company's confidence in its ability to grow its core CF franchise while strategically expanding its gene therapy offerings. The success of Trikafta and other CF treatments provides a solid foundation for the company as it navigates the early stages of Casgevy's launch and works to maximize its potential in various markets.

Vertex's focus on expanding treatment centers and increasing patient access underscores its commitment to addressing significant unmet medical needs. As the company continues to activate more centers and collect more cells, it is poised to make a substantial impact in the treatment of sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, further solidifying its position in the biopharmaceutical industry.