COVID-19 pan-variant mRNA vaccine (BioNet)

The COVID-19 pandemic continues with highly contagious variants and waning immunity. As the virus keeps evolving to be more infectious and immune evasive, some question whether the COVID-19 pandemic can be managed through sustainable public health measures.

We developed an agent-based simulation to explore the impact of COVID-19 mutations, periodic vaccinations, and nonpharmaceutical interventions on reducing COVID-19 deaths. The model is calibrated to the greater Seattle area by observing local epidemic data. We perform scenario analyses on viral mutations that change infectiousness, disease severity, and immune evasiveness from previous infections and vaccination every 6 months. The simulation is run until the end of year 2023.

Variants with increased infectivity or increased immune evasion dominate previous strains. With enhanced immune protection from a pancoronavirus vaccine, the most optimistic periodic vaccination rate reduces average total deaths by 44.6% compared with the most pessimistic periodic vaccination rate. A strict threshold nonpharmaceutical intervention policy reduces average total deaths by 71.3% compared with an open society, whereas a moderate nonpharmaceutical intervention policy results in a 33.6% reduction.

Our findings highlight the potential benefits of pancoronavirus vaccines that offer enhanced and longer-lasting immunity. We emphasize the crucial role of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing COVID-19 deaths regardless of virus mutation scenarios. Owing to highly immune evasive and contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, most scenarios in this study fail to reduce the mortality of COVID-19 to the level of influenza and pneumonia. However, our findings indicate that periodic vaccinations and a threshold nonpharmaceutical intervention policy may succeed in achieving this goal. This indicates the need for caution and vigilance in managing a continuing COVID-19 epidemic.

In the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, there remain unanswered questions regarding the nature and importance of the humoral immune response against other coronaviruses. Although coinfection of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) with the SARS-CoV-2 has not been documented yet, several patients previously infected with MERS-CoV received the COVID-19 vaccine; data describing how preexisting MERS-CoV immunity may shape the response to SARS-CoV-2 following infection or vaccination are lacking.

To characterize the cross-reactive and protective humoral responses in patients exposed to both MERS-CoV infection and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.

This cohort study involved a total of 18 sera samples collected from 14 patients with MERS-CoV infection before (n = 12) and after (n = 6) vaccination with 2 doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273). Of those patients, 4 had prevaccination and postvaccination samples. Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV were assessed as well as cross-reactive responses to other human coronaviruses.

The main outcomes measured were binding antibody responses, neutralizing antibodies, and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) activity. Binding antibodies targeting SARS-CoV-2 main antigens (spike [S], nucleocapsid, and receptor-binding domain) were detected using automated immunoassays. Cross-reactive antibodies with the S1 protein of SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and common human coronaviruses were analyzed using a bead-based assay. Neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 as well as ADCC activity against SARS-CoV-2 were assessed.

A total of 18 samples were collected from 14 male patients with MERS-CoV infection (mean [SD] age, 43.8 [14.6] years). Median (IQR) duration between primary COVID-19 vaccination and sample collection was 146 (47-189) days. Prevaccination samples had high levels of anti-MERS S1 immunoglobin M (IgM) and IgG (reactivity index ranging from 0.80 to 54.7 for IgM and from 0.85 to 176.3 for IgG). Cross-reactive antibodies with SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were also detected in these samples. However, cross-reactivity against other coronaviruses was not detected by the microarray assay. Postvaccination samples showed significantly higher levels of total antibodies, IgG, and IgA targeting SARS-CoV-2 S protein compared with prevaccination samples (eg, mean total antibodies: 8955.0 AU/mL; 95% CI, -5025.0 to 22936.0 arbitrary units/mL; P = .002). In addition, significantly higher anti-SARS S1 IgG levels were detected following vaccination (mean reactivity index, 55.4; 95% CI, -9.1 to 120.0; P = .001), suggesting potential cross-reactivity with these coronaviruses. Also, anti-S NAbs were significantly boosted against SARS-CoV-2 (50.5% neutralization; 95% CI, 17.6% to 83.2% neutralization; P < .001) after vaccination. Furthermore, there was no significant increase in antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity against SARS-CoV-2 S protein postvaccination.

This cohort study found a significant boost in cross-reactive NAbs in some patients exposed to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 antigens. These findings suggest that isolation of broadly reactive antibodies from these patients may help guide the development of a pancoronavirus vaccine by targeting cross-reactive epitopes between distinct strains of human coronaviruses.