Roche’s shares hit after Q3 sales drop, outlook disappoints
19 Oct 2023
AcquisitionPhase 2Financial StatementPhase 1
Headline results for the third quarter:
Pharmaceutical division sales: CHF 10.9 billion ($12.2 billion), up 1%
Overall revenue: CHF 14.3 billion ($15.9 billion; in line with estimates), down 3%
Note: All changes are versus the prior-year period on a reported basis unless otherwise stated
What the company said:
“We achieved good results in the first nine months of 2023, more than compensating for the expected decline in demand for COVID-19 products,” remarked CEO Thomas Schinecker, with sales in the pharmaceuticals division boosted by continued high demand for newer medicines.
Roche noted that in the third quarter, all regions delivered strong growth for the pharmaceutical segment, although it cautioned that currency headwinds have further intensified. The company added that ophthalmology drug Vabysmo is on track to surpass CHF 2 billion in sales this year.
Other results:
New products: CHF 5.6 billion
Ocrevus: CHF 1.6 billion, up 3%
Hemlibra: CHF 1 billion, up 8%
Tecentriq: CHF 938 million, flat versus the prior year
Perjeta: CHF 913 million, down 11%
Vabysmo: CHF 656 million, up 279%
Kadcyla: CHF 485 million, down 6%
Alecensa: CHF 368 million, down 4%
Evrysdi: CHF 360 million, up 23%
Phesgo: CHF 300 million, up 49%
Polivy: CHF 252 million, up 123%
Established products
Actemra/RoActemra: CHF 647 million, up 11%
Herceptin: CHF 383 million down 22%
MabThera/Rituxan: CHF 378 million, down 21%
Avastin: CHF 373 million, down 27%
Looking ahead:
Roche reiterated that due to an anticipated "sharp decline" in sales of COVID-19 products of approximately CHF 4.5 billion - about CHF 500 million less than previously forecast - it expects a decrease in group revenues this year in the low-single-digit range at constant exchange rates. Excluding the impact of this COVID-19 sales decline, Roche anticipates solid sales growth for the base business of both its pharmaceuticals and diagnostics divisions. Meanwhile, core earnings per share are targeted to develop broadly in line with the sales decline.
Schinecker has pledged to improve Roche's R&D productivity, particularly around choosing which Phase II drugs to advance into the final stage of development. The executive is also open to acquisitions to bolster its pipeline. "For us it's important if we look at early-stage deals or late-stage deals that it makes sense from a scientific perspective and it has to make sense from a financial perspective," Schinecker said.
What analysts said:
"Doubts around R&D productivity both from investors and internally will take time to lift," Jefferies analysts noted, saying the reiterated outlook "may disappoint." Roche's shares fell more than 5% on Thursday, with Stephan Sola of Plutos explaining "some investors think that they are not missing out on much at Roche in the near future and are selling."
Pipeline updates:
Roche disclosed that during the most recent quarter it ended Phase II development of the CB2 agonist vicasinabinCB2 agonist vicasinabin in diabetic retinopathy and ralmitaront for schizophrenia. The company had previously ended two mid-stage studies of ralmitaront, a TAAR1 partial agonist.
Meanwhile, Roche also scrapped Phase I development of the CEAxCD3 bispecific cibisatamab in solid tumours.
($1 = CHF 0.896893)
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