Always remember just how risky it is to gamble big on small studies.
A little more than 4 years ago, Novartis reportedly
put up
a package worth up to $1 billion for the dry eye drug ECF843 after a small biotech called Lubris put it through its paces in a tiny study of 40 moderate to severe patients, tracking some statistically significant markers of efficacy.
By last fall, the program had risen up to become one CEO Vas Narasimhan’s top
“wild card” programs
in line for a potential breakthrough year in 2021. These drugs were all considered high-risk, high-reward efforts. And in this case, risk won.
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