Objective:This study aims to identify and quantify the high-risk factors for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) in elderly patients undergoing total knee replacement (TKA).
Methods:
621 patients who underwent TKA were divided into DVT/PE positive group (
N
= 52) and a negative group (
N
= 569).
Result:
Statistically significant differences were observed in the following factors: Caprini score (χ
2
= 11.385,
p
< .001), prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (χ
2
= 4.502,
p
= .034), history of heart failure (χ
2
= 4.326,
p
= .012), duration of surgery (t = 3.723,
p
= .002), and early postoperative activity (χ
2
= 4.014,
p
= .045). The incidence of DVT/PE was significantly higher in the very high-risk group compared to the high-risk group (9.89% vs 4.84%, χ
2
= 2.080,
p
= .032). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the Caprini score as an extremely high-risk factor (adjusted OR = 2.87, 95% CI: 1.53-5.39,
p
= .001), alongside COPD (OR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.08-3.48,
p
= .026), history of heart failure (OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.01-2.78,
p
= .048), and surgical duration exceeding 2 hours (OR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.08-1.68,
p
= .008) as independent risk factors. The model, developed using multi-factor regression variables, demonstrates strong predictive performance for the occurrence of DVT/PE, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.842 (95%CI: 0.791-0.894).
Conclusion:In elderly patients undergoing TKA, even with standard anticoagulation prophylaxis, a high Caprini risk score, COPD, a history of heart failure, and prolonged operative time remain independent risk factors for DVT. Early postoperative mobilization has been shown to have a protective effect.