October 12, 2015
By 
Mark Terry
, BioSpace.com Breaking News Staff
Analysts and investors love to 
speculate
 on big mergers and acquisitions, but rumors that 
Novartis AG
 and 
Roche
 might merge into a huge European-based drug company have been 
waved away
 by company executives. 
Clearly a 
Roche
-
NVS
 merger is of interest to analysts, because this isn’t the first time the subject has come up, nor is it the first time the company executives have said it won’t happen. Way back in March 2014, Reuters 
ran a story
 in which outgoing 
Roche
 Chairman, 
Franz Humer
, denied any interest in a merger. When asked if he wanted the two companies to stay independent, 
Joerg Reinhardt
, chairman of 
Novartis
 said, “Absolutely.” 
And analysts are asking again. At least part of the reason the subject comes up is that 
Novartis
 already owns a 33 percent stake in 
Roche Holding AG
. “On paper, you can generate a lot of value, that is true,” Reinhardt told Bilanz Business Talk in a recent interview. “Our philosophy is, we want to grow organically.” 
Novartis
’s Reinhardt, says, “I would from our perspective, certainly for the foreseeable future, rule out” any large takeovers. 
In addition, both companies are near each other, in the city of Basel, Switzerland. And they are, obviously, competitors. 
Not that 
Novartis
’s strategy is always that easy to understand. In August the company 
announced
 it was acquiring the remaining rights to Ofatumumab from UK-based 
GlaxoSmithKline
 for more than $1 billion. The company had bought the rights to the drug earlier for oncology, which is marketed as Arzerra. The new deal was for the rights to develop and market it for multiple sclerosis (MS). The biggest competitor for the drug is 
Roche
’s ocrelizumab.
If 
Roche
’s ocrelizumab is approved for MS in 2016, it would be on the market in 2017. If 
Novartis
 manages to develop Ofatumumab for MS, it probably wouldn’t be on the market until 2019. 
“It’s a joke,” said 
Fabian Wenner
, an analyst at 
Kepler Cheuvreux
 in Zurich in an interview with Bloomberg Business. “Patients either want better convenience than the old drugs or they want better efficacy, and Ofatumumab is offering neither of those things. The chances of this being successful in MS and generating any sales are zero on my view.” 
It’s possible that 
Novartis
 is looking at “other auto-immune conditions,” for the drug and believes it can expand the uses for the drug beyond cancer and MS, such as systemic lupus erythematosis, rheumatoid arthritis, scleroderma, and type 1 diabetes. 
Novartis
 also 
announced
 in January a big three-part deal with 
GSK
. In that deal, 
GSK
 acquired 
Novartis
’s vaccine business, except the influenza vaccines, and created a consumer healthcare joint venture. It sold off its oncology portfolio and related research and development activities to Novartis, as well as the rights to two pipeline AKT inhibitors. 
Roche
, for its part, is not known for 
large acquisitions
 with the exception of its 2009 acquisition of 
Genentech
 for $46.9 billion. It has made numerous smaller acquisitions, such as 
Seragon Pharmaceuticals
 in 2014 for $725 million, and 
Santaris Pharma
 for about $250 million. Just last week the company acquired San Francisco-based 
Adheron Therapeutics
 for up to $580 million. 
In a September interview with Reuters, 
Severin Schwann
, chief executive officer of 
Roche
, said he felt biotechnology was in a “bubble,” which drove up the prices of medium-sized companies. He think the bubble will burst. Although this concern hasn’t kept the company from buying smaller companies, he said of bigger deals, “For us, none of them make sense and when I see this all the time, I am worried that valuations are too high.”