AZD-1981

Background: Approximately 50% of patients with chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) experience symptoms that are not fully controlled by antihistamines, indicating an unmet clinical need. Objective: To evaluate the effects of the selective CRTh2 antagonist AZD1981 on symptoms and targeted leukocytes in adults with persistent CSU despite treatment with H1-antihistamines. Methods: We performed a single-center, randomized, placebo-controlled study involving adult CSU subjects with symptoms despite daily antihistamines. The subjects underwent a 2-week placebo run-in and 4 weeks of double-blinded therapy with either AZD1981 40 mg TID or placebo, followed by a 2-week placebo washout. The primary objective was to assess the effect of AZD1981 on CSU signs and symptoms. Secondary objectives included the effects of AZD1981 on prostaglandin D2 (PGD2)-induced eosinophil shape change, circulating leukocyte subsets, CRTh2 expression on blood leukocytes, and total blood leukocyte histamine content. Results: Twenty-eight subjects were randomized to AZD1981 or placebo, with 26 subjects completing the study. The urticaria activity scores declined during the treatment phase in both groups, and they were significantly reduced in the AZD1981 group at the end of washout. AZD1981 treatment increased circulating eosinophils and significantly impaired PGD2-mediated eosinophil shape change. CRTh2 surface expression rose significantly on blood basophils during active treatment. No serious adverse events were observed. Conclusions: This is the first study to examine the efficacy of a CRTh2 antagonist in antihistamine-refractory CSU. AZD1981 treatment was well tolerated, effectively inhibited PGD2-mediated eosinophil shape change, shifted numbers of circulating eosinophils, and reduced weekly itch scores more than hives during treatment and into washout. Further studies are needed to determine whether inhibition of the PGD2/CRTh2 pathway will be an ­effective treatment for CSU.

Population model-based (pharmacometric) approaches are widely used for the analyses of phase IIb clinical trial data to increase the accuracy of the dose selection for phase III clinical trials. On the other hand, if the analysis is based on one selected model, model selection bias can potentially spoil the accuracy of the dose selection process. In this paper, four methods that assume a number of pre-defined model structure candidates, for example a set of dose-response shape functions, and then combine or select those candidate models are introduced. The key hypothesis is that by combining both model structure uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty using these methodologies, we can make a more robust model based dose selection decision at the end of a phase IIb clinical trial. These methods are investigated using realistic simulation studies based on the study protocol of an actual phase IIb trial for an oral asthma drug candidate (AZD1981). Based on the simulation study, it is demonstrated that a bootstrap model selection method properly avoids model selection bias and in most cases increases the accuracy of the end of phase IIb decision. Thus, we recommend using this bootstrap model selection method when conducting population model-based decision-making at the end of phase IIb clinical trials.