PSN-010

Selecting dosing regimens for phase 2 studies for a novel glucokinase activator LY2599506 is challenging due to the difficulty in modeling and assessing hypoglycemia risk. A semi-mechanistic integrated glucose-insulin-glucagon (GIG) model was developed in NONMEM based on pharmacokinetic, glucose, insulin, glucagon, and meal data obtained from a multiple ascending dose study in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with LY2599506 for up to 26 days. The series of differential equations from the NONMEM model was translated into an R script to prospectively predict 24-h glucose profiles following LY2599506 treatment for 3 months for a variety of doses and dosing regimens. The reduction in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) at the end of the 3-month treatment was estimated using a transit compartment model based on the simulated fasting glucose values. Two randomized phase 2 studies, one with fixed dosing and the other employing conditional dose titration were conducted. The simulation suggested that (1) Comparable HbA1c lowering with lower hypoglycemia risk occurs with titration compared to fixed-dosing; and (2) A dose range of 50-400 mg BID provides either greater efficacy or lower hypoglycemia incidence or both than glyburide. The predictions were in reasonable agreement with the observed clinical data. The model predicted HbA1c reduction and hypoglycemia risk provided the basis for the decision to focus on the dose-titration trial and for the selection of doses for the demonstration of superiority of LY2599506 to glyburide. The integrated GIG model represented a valuable tool for the evaluation of hypoglycemia incidence.

A proof of concept study was conducted to investigate the safety and tolerability of a novel oral glucokinase activator, LY2599506, during multiple dose administration to healthy volunteers and subjects with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). To analyze the study data, a previously established semi-mechanistic integrated glucose-insulin model was extended to include characterization of glucagon dynamics. The model captured endogenous glucose and insulin dynamics, including the amplifying effects of glucose on insulin production and of insulin on glucose elimination, as well as the inhibitory influence of glucose and insulin on hepatic glucose production. The hepatic glucose production in the model was increased by glucagon and glucagon production was inhibited by elevated glucose concentrations. The contribution of exogenous factors to glycemic response, such as ingestion of carbohydrates in meals, was also included in the model. The effect of LY2599506 on glucose homeostasis in subjects with T2DM was investigated by linking a one-compartment, pharmacokinetic model to the semi-mechanistic, integrated glucose-insulin-glucagon system. Drug effects were included on pancreatic insulin secretion and hepatic glucose production. The relationships between LY2599506, glucose, insulin, and glucagon concentrations were described quantitatively and consequently, the improved understanding of the drug-response system could be used to support further clinical study planning during drug development, such as dose selection.