Moderna looks to new COVID booster, RSV shot to curb falling sales

03 Aug 2023
www.biopharmadive.com
VaccineDrug ApprovalPriority ReviewmRNAEmergency Use Authorization
Dive Brief:
Moderna on Thursday reported $293 million in quarterly sales for its COVID-19 vaccineCOVID-19 vaccine, a decline of 94% from the same period a year prior and indication of the slowing demand for the protective shots.
Still, Moderna expects a booster aimed at newer coronavirus strains can help revenue rebound. The company expects between $6 and $8 billion in COVID vaccine sales this year because of the newer shot and additional commercial contracts, but cautioned that sales are dependent on uptake.
Moderna is also looking to two other products to bolster its business. It’s in the process of submitting a a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine to U.S. regulators, while it has advanced an influenza shot into late-stage testing. Earlier this year, Moderna predicted its COVID, flu and RSV vaccines could generate $8 billion to $15 billion in annual revenue by 2027.
Dive Insight:
Moderna became one of the biotechnology sector’s most valuable companies after successfully developing a COVID vaccine. Shares peaked at nearly $450 in early 2021 as its shot quickly became one of the industry’s most lucrative products.
But Moderna has lost much of its value as demand for its COVID shot has cooled amid lower case counts and fewer bulk government purchases. Rival Pfizer faces the same issues. As a result, investors are increasingly focused on which of Moderna’s future products can fill the gap.
Moderna, for its part, still anticipates COVID shot revenue will meet its expectations. Its vaccine has generated about $2.1 billion so far this year, in line with earlier projections. The lower second quarter numbers were “in line with our expectations given the seasonal nature” of the business, said Chief Commercial Officer Arpa Garay, on a conference call with analysts.
Moderna is looking to the fall season to cover the bulk of its remaining forecast, pointing to the expected availability of an updated booster shot that’s under regulatory review. The company is anticipating another $2 billion from previously announced advance purchase agreements, and between $2 billion to $4 billion in additional sales for deliveries in the second half of the year.
But executives hedged those numbers, noting the difficulty in predicting vaccine uptake given the shots have now moved to the commercial market. Additionally, the amount from advance purchase agreements is lower than Moderna previously predicted, due to deferrals in certain countries, noted Jefferies analyst Michael Yee.
Yee estimates commercial market sales in the U.S. could reach $1.5 billion in the fall and winter.
The company’s RSV shot is also a key part of its future projections. Moderna began submitting approval applications in July, and plans to use a priority review voucher to speed up its evaluation in the U.S. It’s expected to reach market in early 2024, though, one season behind rival vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.
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