Several brand-name drugmakers believe they will withstand any drug pricing impacts from President Donald Trump’s tariffs — and manufacturers that contract with pharma companies will likely be unaffected, analysts say.
Trump’s tariff plans were met with
immediate concern
from some pharmaceutical industry groups that drug prices in the US would rise and shortages would deepen. But companies like GSK and Novo Nordisk insisted last week they’re well-positioned to absorb any increases in cost, should the tariffs be imposed.
And contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs) like Abzena and Lonza are likely too downstream in the supply chain from tariffs, William Blair analyst Max Smock said in an interview with
Endpoints News
. Any costs would be passed to their pharma company customers to handle.
Tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were delayed by one month after Trump reached deals with both countries’ leaders. Trump on Monday
announced
additional tariffs on aluminum and steel imports into the US.
Meanwhile, tariffs are underway in China, which is a big supplier of APIs. Trump has
delayed
potential tariffs on small packages under $800 from China.
The tariffs will hit generic drugmakers the hardest and could force them out of the market due to low profit margins, Association for Accessible Medicines CEO John Murphy
warned
. The Trump administration needs to work on incentives for generic manufacturers, Murphy told
Endpoints News
in an interview.
But brand-name heavy hitters like GSK will have
“no exposure or minimal exposure”
to Trump’s tariffs and can absorb any changes, GSK CEO Emma Walmsley told reporters in a call last week. Merck CFO Caroline Litchfield said during an investor call that she expects “immaterial impact.” Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen said Novo is “well-positioned” to handle any impact, but said the company is not “immune,”
Reuters
reported
.
Meanwhile, Twist Bioscience said it could use the tariffs to its advantage. The taxes will likely be a headwind for foreign competitors, CEO Emily Leproust said during the company’s earnings call.
Compared to generic drug companies, brand-name drugmakers have much higher profit margins, around 70% to 90%, so many will be able to absorb the cost of tariffs, Abzena CEO Matthew Stober told Endpoints.
CDMOs are contracted by pharmaceutical companies to manufacture all, or parts of, their drug products in factories. Any increases in cost for manufacturers are likely to be passed onto their pharmaceutical customers, RBC Capital senior healthcare analyst Charles Weston said. He likened this to the rising cost of goods during the pandemic. CDMOs “pretty much all were successful in passing on the cost to customers,” he said.
Smock said the tariffs feel like an extension of the
Biosecure Act
, which benefited some CDMOs. Biosecure is a draft bill that would ban US pharmaceutical companies from working with certain Chinese suppliers, causing pharma
companies to look for alternatives
. Despite Biosecure being
left out
of the end-of-year must-pass defense legislation, Stober said his CDMO was still feeling the tailwinds from the bill.
Yet some foreign CDMOs are still looking to minimize any potential risks from the tariffs. Korean CDMO Celltrion said it’s
planning to buy US-based factories
as a means to sidestep the tariffs. The only issue with this is there are limited available sites in the US for CDMOs to absorb, Smock said.
Despite concerns that tariffs could cause drug prices to soar, Stober said they could push for more US local manufacturing, which could in turn cushion drug shortages. The US supply chain is vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, especially for raw materials for drugs like antibiotics, which are sourced from China, he added.
There’s been a
recent push
for the US to boost its local manufacturing footprint. But moving operations to the US comes with high costs, and it can take months to years to tech transfer over operations, Weston said. Further, building new capacity can take around three to five years to get online, Murphy said.
Some pharma clients have previously requested that their contracted partner, like Lonza, move operations to one of their US sites, Smock said. But this is also costly and time-consuming.
Despite the looming pressure of tariffs and the uncertainty of how they will play out, branded drugmakers and their manufacturing partners seem to be likely to escape any major headwinds. Meanwhile, generic producers may struggle to keep their business profitable.
Editor’s note: This story was updated with Trump’s announcement on steel and aluminum tariffs.