Article
Author: Best-Lane, Janis ; Burrell, Aidan ; Lawler, Patrick R. ; McGuinness, Shay ; Litton, Edward ; Weis, Sebastian ; Fowler, Rob ; Nasir Khoso, Muhammad ; Hills, Thomas E. ; McQuilten, Zoe K. ; Bradbury, Charlotte A. ; Morpeth, Susan ; Beane, Abigail ; Lamontagne, François ; Brunkhorst, Frank M. ; Au, Carly ; Koirala, Sabin ; Mahon, Niamh ; Shankar-Hari, Manu ; Nichol, Alistair D. ; Arabi, Yaseen ; Detry, Michelle A. ; Lewis, Roger J. ; Green, Cameron ; Altaf Kidwai, Aneela ; Fitzgerald, Mark ; McAuley, Daniel F. ; Duffy, Eamon ; Reyes, Luis Felipe ; Hashmi, Madiha ; Tong, Steven Y. C. ; Cheng, Allen C. ; Aryal, Diptesh ; Berry, Lindsay R. ; Cove, Matthew E. ; Higgins, Alisa M. ; Rowan, Kathryn M. ; Berry, Scott M. ; Turner, Anne M. ; Beasley, Richard ; Murthy, Srinivas ; Seymour, Christopher W. ; Jayakumar, Deva ; van de Veerdonk, Frank ; Haniffa, Rashan ; Estcourt, Lise J. ; Baillie, Kenneth ; Goossens, Herman ; Tambyah, Paul A. ; Singh, Vanessa ; Webb, Steve A. ; McGlothlin, Anna ; Netea, Mihai ; de Jong, Menno ; Ain Khan, Quratul ; Parke, Rachael L. ; Patanwala, Asad ; Buxton, Meredith ; Peters, Svenja ; Mouncey, Paul R. ; Annane, Djillali ; Angus, Derek C. ; Bonten, Marc ; McVerry, Bryan J. ; Parker, Jane C. ; Marshall, John C. ; Kumar, Ashok ; Zarychanski, Ryan ; Gordon, Anthony C. ; Huang, David T. ; Turgeon, Alexis F. ; Lorenzi, Elizabeth ; Hays, Leanne M. C. ; Slater, Matthew ; Santos, Marlene ; Saunders, Christina T. ; Ichihara, Nao ; Cecconi, Maurizio ; Orr, Katrina ; McArthur, Colin J. ; Saito, Hiroki ; Derde, Lennie P. G.
Objective::To determine whether ivermectin improves outcomes for critically and noncritically ill hospitalized patients with COVID-19.
Design::An ongoing international, multifactorial, adaptive platform, randomized, controlled trial.
Setting::Hospitals in Pakistan, India, and Ireland between June 11, 2021, and September 9, 2022.
Patients::Critically and noncritically ill patients.
Interventions::Randomized to ivermectin or no ivermectin (control).
Measurements and Main Results::The primary outcome was respiratory and cardiovascular organ support-free days, assessed on an ordinal scale combining in-hospital death (assigned a value of –1) and days free of organ support through day 21 in survivors. Analyses used a Bayesian cumulative logistic model. Enrollment was closed for operational futility, following external evidence suggesting no benefit with ivermectin in nonhospitalized patients with COVID-19. Among 61 critically ill patients, the median number of organ support-free days was –1, indicating death was the most common vital outcome (interquartile range [IQR], –1 to 17), for the ivermectin group and –1 (IQR, –1 to 17.25) for the control group (adjusted proportional odds ratio [OR], 0.94; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.40–2.07) and the posterior probability of superiority to control was 44.2%. Among 89 noncritically ill patients, the median number of organ support-free days was 22 (IQR, 18.5–22) for ivermectin and 22 (IQR, 16–22) for control (adjusted proportional OR, 1.04; 95% CrI, 0.48–2.34) and the posterior probability of superiority was 53.7%. Among critically ill patients, hospital survival was 35.1% (13/37) for ivermectin and 37.5% (9/24) for control (adjusted OR, 1.00; 95% CrI, 0.39–2.32), posterior probability of superiority was 50.0%. Among noncritically ill patients, hospital survival was 84.1% (37/44) for ivermectin and 77.8% (35/45) for control (adjusted OR, 1.16; 95% CrI, 0.5–3.07), posterior probability of superiority was 63.3%.
Conclusions::For critically and noncritically ill hospitalized patients with COVID-19, ivermectin was unlikely to improve the primary composite outcome of organ support-free days and hospital survival.