GSK Ups Profit Forecast on Strong Q1 Vaccine Sales

GSK has revised its full-year guidance upward following a strong performance in the first quarter of 2024, driven by robust vaccine sales. The British pharmaceutical giant reported total sales of £7.4 billion (approximately $9.2 billion), a 10% increase compared to the same period last year. The company's vaccine sector alone accounted for £2.2 billion ($2.7 billion) in total sales for Q1, reflecting a 22% year-over-year growth.

As a result of these impressive figures, GSK has adjusted its sales growth expectations for 2024 to the upper end of its previously forecasted 5% to 7% range. The company now anticipates core operating profit growth between 9% and 11%, up from the earlier 7% to 10% projection. Additionally, annual adjusted earnings per share are expected to rise between 8% and 10%, compared to the prior estimate of 6% to 9%.

One of the key contributors to GSK's successful quarter was its shingles vaccine, Shingrix, which saw sales of £945 million ($1.1 billion), marking an 18% increase from the same quarter last year. The surge in Shingrix sales was attributed to heightened demand following the expansion of public funding in various European and international markets. New immunization programs in Australia, Europe, and the U.K. also contributed to its success. Notably, markets outside the U.S. accounted for over half of global sales, with the vaccine now available in 39 countries.

The company's respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, Arexvy, generated £182 million ($227.3 million) in sales, with £154 million ($192.3 million) coming from the U.S. Despite a seasonal decline in demand, the vaccine has also gained traction in other markets, including Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil. Launched last year, Arexvy has quickly become a dominant player in the U.S. RSV vaccine market, surpassing sales of Pfizer's competing vaccine, Abrysvo. Arexvy was accepted for priority review by the FDA in February 2024, aiming to extend its use to adults aged 50 to 59 who are at higher risk for RSV. A decision is anticipated in early June.

GSK's meningitis vaccines, Menveo and Bexsero, together brought in £299 million ($373 million) in Q1, driven by increased international demand for Menveo and heightened demand for Bexsero in Australia, where it also launched in Vietnam.

The company's specialty medicines sector experienced a 17% growth, with sales reaching £2.5 billion ($3.1 billion). GSK's HIV medicines were particularly noteworthy, contributing £1.6 billion ($1.9 billion) in profit, a 14% increase from the same period last year.

GSK CEO Emma Walmsley expressed optimism about the company's future, stating, "Together with other R&D achievements, we have strengthened prospects for growth in all of our key therapeutic areas this quarter: infectious diseases, HIV, respiratory/immunology, and oncology. We expect this strong momentum to continue, and look forward to delivering another year of meaningful growth in sales and earnings in 2024."

The company is currently involved in several legal battles, including litigation related to the heartburn medication Zantac and its alleged cancer link. GSK faced "significant legal charges" in Q1 for its defense in the Zantac litigation. Though a confidential settlement was reached in one case in February 2024, multiple trial dates are pending in other courts. The company stated that it cannot "meaningfully assess" potential liabilities at this time.

Additionally, GSK is suing Pfizer and BioNTech, accusing them of infringing on patents related to the mRNA technology used in their COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty.