mRNA-1273.815

To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines updated for Autumn 2023 in adults aged ≥60 years and high-risk persons aged 30-59 years in Germany over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024).

A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated and adapted to the German market. Numbers of symptomatic infections, a number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of an Autumn 2023 Moderna updated COVID-19 (mRNA-1273.815) vaccine was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the mRNA-1273.815 and the Autumn Pfizer-BioNTech updated COVID-19 (XBB.1.5 BNT162b2) vaccines, as well as societal return on investment for the mRNA-1273.815 vaccine relative to no vaccination, were also examined.

Compared to no autumn vaccination, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is predicted to prevent approximately 1,697,900 symptomatic infections, 85,400 hospitalizations, and 4,100 deaths. Compared to an XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 campaign, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is also predicted to prevent approximately 90,100 symptomatic infections, 3,500 hospitalizations, and 160 deaths. Across both analyses we found the mRNA-1273.815 campaign to be dominant.

The mRNA-1273.815 vaccine can be considered cost-effective relative to the XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccine and highly likely to provide more benefits and save costs compared to no vaccine in Germany, and to offer high societal return on investment.

This study aimed to evaluate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of mRNA-1273.815, a 2023–2024 Omicron XBB.1.5-containing mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, at preventing COVID-19–related hospitalizations and any medically attended COVID-19 in adults.

In a linked electronic health record–claims dataset, we identified US adults (≥18 years) who received the mRNA-1273.815 vaccine (exposed cohort) between 12 September and 15 December 2023, matched 1:1 to individuals who did not receive a 2023–2024 updated COVID-19 vaccine (unexposed cohort). Cohorts were balanced using inverse probability of treatment weighting on demographics, vaccination and infection history, and underlying medical conditions. Study cohorts were followed until 31 December 2023 for COVID-19–related hospitalizations and medically attended COVID-19. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and VE. Subgroup analyses were performed for adults ≥50 years, adults ≥65 years, and individuals with underlying medical conditions.

Overall, 859 335 matched pairs of mRNA-1273.815 recipients and unexposed adults were identified. The mean (standard deviation) age was 63 (16) years. More than 60% of individuals in both cohorts had an underlying medical condition. Among the overall adult population, VE was 60.2% (95% confidence interval, 53.4–66.0) against COVID-19–related hospitalization and 33.1% (30.2–35.9) against medically attended COVID-19 over a median follow-up of 63 (interquartile range: 44–78) days. VE estimates by age and underlying medical conditions were similar.

These results demonstrate the significant protection provided by mRNA-1273.815 against COVID-19–related hospitalizations and any medically attended COVID-19 in adults, regardless of vaccination history, and support Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations to stay up-to-date with COVID-19 vaccination to prevent COVID-19–related outcomes, including hospitalizations.