Semaglutide (Novo Nordisk)

London: U.S. Medicare price cuts of up to 85% will have a lesser impact on drugmakers than initially feared, with most of the hit already reflected in forecasts, Wall Street analysts said. Shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk and Teva Pharmaceuticals rose 5% and 3% respectively after the U.S. government published negotiated prices late on Tuesday. Novo's top-selling drug semaglutide, sold as Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for weight loss, as well as Teva's Austedo for Hungtington disease were among the closely watched drugs on the list of prices, which will take effect in 2027. The announcement and recent White House deals offer clarity on pricing for popular GLP-1 drugs such as Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, which have drawn scrutiny over their costs. The negotiated price for Novo's semaglutide is "the final cloud to clear on the drawn-out, but positively resolved GLP-1 pricing debate ," said Bernstein analyst Christian Moore. The price cuts through the U.S. Medicare health plan come as President Donald Trump's administration pushes the drug industry to advocate for other wealthy nations, particularly in Europe, to pay more for prescription medicines. Goldman Sachs said a key question for the first half of 2026 will be whether lower Medicare prices boost Wegovy volumes. William Blair analysts noted the $274 monthly price for Novo's semaglutide broadly aligns with recent government deals, but said uncertainty remains over insurance coverage expansion. FACTORED INTO NOVO, ASTRAZENECA AND GSK FORECASTS Bernstein analysts said that five of the 15 targeted medicines will become generic by 2027, limiting their exposure to price cuts. The lower prices could even keep patients on the branded therapies longer, boosting volumes, they said. Analysts agreed that the reductions had been factored into estimates for Novo, AstraZeneca and GSK. Earlier this month, Novo said it expected a low single-digit impact to global sales if the price cuts were implemented this year. Analysts said that would imply roughly a 6 billion Danish crown ($931 million) sales hit. AstraZeneca and GSK shares were flat on Wednesday. GSK said when reporting third-quarter results that any impact from negotiated prices was fully factored into its outlook. Shore Capital analyst Sean Conroy said the cuts would hit earnings by "low- to mid-hundreds" of millions of pounds or dollars. Bernstein estimated the impact on Abbie in the range of $100 million to $250 million to sales of its mood disorder drug Vraylar and irritable bowel syndrome medicine Linzess as well as for Amgen's psoriasis drug Otezla. ($1 = 6.4404 Danish crowns) (Reporting by Bhanvi Satija and Maggie Fick in London, Stine Jacobsen in Copenhagen, Mariam Sunny and Mrinalika Roy in Bengaluru; Editing by Jane Merriman, Jan Harvey and Alexander Smith)

The new negotiated prices for Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 drugs under the Inflation Reduction Act have raised questions about how they will impact the prices Novo agreed to under its separate “most favored nation” deal with the White House. On Wednesday, a CMS spokesperson told Endpoints News that the MFN prices “are expected to supersede” the IRA prices for Medicare, in light of the terms and timelines of both deals. Under the IRA, CMS negotiated a $274 monthly price for Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus, which would take effect in 2027 and be applied differently across dose forms and strengths. Under the MFN deal it reached earlier this month, Novo agreed to sell Ozempic and Wegovy to Medicare for $245 per month starting in 2026, with a $50 copay for qualifying beneficiaries. The CMS spokesperson said that for drugs such as Rybelsus, which weren’t part of the MFN negotiations, the IRA price will go into effect. Novo said Tuesday that the IRA prices apply specifically to Medicare Part D, which currently doesn’t cover anti-obesity drugs when prescribed for obesity. It said its MFN deal with the White House “reflects a broader effort to expand access to obesity care across Medicare and Medicaid.” The company spokesperson said it looks “forward to additional clarity from CMS on how pricing and coverage will work together to support patient access as details are finalized.” The company declined to comment further on Wednesday.