COVID-19 Update: Omicron Threat Remains Unknown and Breakthrough Factors
01 Dec 2021
VaccineAntibodymRNA
Experts say it will be two to four weeks before they have enough data to know whether the newly identified COVID-19 variant, Omicron, is a bigger threat than Delta. Much of what is known is based on laboratory tests and models of the virus’ spike protein mutations. Here’s a look.
Researchers Mostly Agree They Don’t Have Enough Data About Omicron Yet
Although the data is still coming, that hasn’t prevented experts from speculating on the threat of the new Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. Adrian Puren, acting director of South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable DiseasesCommunicable Diseases (NICD), told Reuters, “We thought, what will outcompete Delta? That has always been the question, in terms of transmissibility at least … Perhaps this particular variant is the variant.”
It’s too early to say, and most experts say it will be two to four weeks before additional data will determine if the variant is more dangerous than Delta. So far, Omicron appears to be more contagious but not necessarily more dangerous. There have been reports the symptoms are milder, and different, than seen with Delta. To date, lab tests and models suggest antibody therapies and vaccines may be less effective against Omicron, but antiviral drugs should have about the same efficacy. The tests do not seem to be performed on actual samples of the Omicron variant but models of the virus’ spike protein.
Additional speculation is that it might cause more infections in people who are vaccinated. This is based largely on the number of mutations seen in Omicron’s spike protein. Most vaccines, particularly the mRNA vaccines produced by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, focus on the original Wuhan wildtype virus’ spike protein.
Ugur Sahin, co-founder of BioNTech, said, “Our message is: Don’t freak out, the plan remains the same: Speed up the administration of a third booster shot.”
A spokesperson with the University of Oxford told Fox News that there was no evidence the current vaccines wouldn’t protect against severe disease from Omicron.
“Despite the appearance of new variants over the past year, vaccines have continued to provide very high levels of protection against severe disease and there is no evidence so far that Omicron is any different,” the spokesperson said. “However, we have the necessary tools and processes in place for rapid development of an updated COVID-19 vaccineCOVID-19 vaccine if it should be necessary.”
Despite the original reports of Omicron coming out of South Africa, which caused several countries, including the U.S., to establish travel bans to several South African countries, new data shows the variant was identified in the Netherlands before South Africa reported it.
So far, the World Health Organization (WHO) has identified and followed more than 20 variants. Most, such as Lambda or Mu, faded away. That could still happen with Omicron. Omicron has more than 30 known mutations in the spike protein.
Jeremy Kamil, an associate professor of microbiology and immunology at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport, said, “The number of changes blew people’s minds. It’s definitely sobering. It’s an exaggeration to say we’re back at square one, but this is not a good development.”
However, the way the media is reacting to Omicron has raised the question of whether public health officials—and the media—are overreacting.
“It’s partly why people started facetiously calling these things’ scariants,’” said Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease physician and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
He notes, however, that what has virus experts paying so much attention to Omicron is the sheer number of mutations observed, which hasn’t been seen with other strains. This increases the risk that antibody therapies and vaccines won’t work against it.
“There’s a very good chance this variant will be very resistant to neutralizing antibodies, but we can’t yet say with any degree of certainty how resistant,” said Theodora Hatziioannou, a virologist at Rockefeller University in New York City.
So far, Omicron has been identified in about 16 countries, but not in the U.S. That doesn’t mean it isn’t present. The U.S. testing for variants isn’t as robust as some countries, such as South Africa, and not all testing identifies variants or the Omicron variant. The most recent countries to report Omicron are Brazil and Japan.
Weak Immune Systems Associated with Breakthrough Infections
A retrospective study published in the Journal of Medical Economics led by Pfizer researchers found that so-called breakthrough infections—COVID-19 infections in people who are already vaccinated—are associated with weak immune systems. The team analyzed the medical records of 1,277,747 people 16 years and older who received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine from December 10, 2020, to July 8, 2021. Of them, 17.7% were immunocompromised by diseases such as cancer, kidney disease, and rheumatologic or inflammatory conditions. The median age in the cohort was 58 years, with 48.3% from 50 to 64 years and 23.0% 65 and older. They found 62.5% of this group had at least one underlying condition that put them at risk of severe COVID-19, compared to 19.3% who were not immunocompromised.
Long-Haul COVID-19 Tied to Chronic Fatigue and Breathing Problems
A recent study found that many survivors of COVID-19 had impaired circulation, abnormal breathing patterns, and chronic fatigue syndrome an average of nine months post-diagnosis. The research was conducted by scientists from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and leveraged cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) and symptom reports to find the roots of shortness of breath in a small group of people with long-haul COVID—23 women and 18 men. The average patient age was 45 years.
“The CPET results demonstrate several abnormalities including reduced exercise capacity, excessive ventilatory response and abnormal breathing patterns which would impact their normal daily life activities,” said lead study author Donna Manchini.
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