AstraZeneca aims for $80B revenue by 2030

A decade ago, AstraZeneca, the British pharmaceutical giant, thwarted a hostile acquisition attempt by Pfizer. At the helm, CEO Pascal Soriot vowed to boost the company’s revenue by nearly 75% to reach $45 billion by 2023. Having successfully achieved this milestone, Soriot has set an even more ambitious target: hitting $80 billion in annual sales by 2030. The new strategy hinges on a combination of innovative treatments for metabolic and autoimmune diseases, while also sustaining current successes in respiratory disorders and cancer therapies.

AstraZeneca faces significant challenges ahead, particularly with impending patent expirations for some of its blockbuster drugs like Farxiga, Lynparza, and Brilinta. These expirations will put immense pressure on the company's research and development department to deliver new, profitable treatments. Achieving the new sales target will also require surpassing Wall Street's expectations, as analysts currently project revenues to be around $67 billion by 2030. Jefferies analyst Peter Welford has forecasted a slightly higher figure of $70 billion.

The company plans to introduce 20 new drugs within this period, starting from November 2022. Six of these drugs have already been released, and AstraZeneca is looking forward to potential label expansions for its asthma medications, Fasenra and Tezspire, based on forthcoming data. In 2025, the company expects to unveil results from two trials for new cardiovascular drugs. Additionally, an advanced antibody-drug conjugate, datopotamab deruxtecan, is in the late stages of development for treating breast and lung cancer. This drug, developed in partnership with Daiichi Sankyo, is anticipated to generate over $9 billion in peak sales.

AstraZeneca is also working on extending the Farxiga franchise by creating fixed-dose combinations with new compounds to treat heart failure and chronic kidney disease. Although the company lags behind industry leaders such as Novartis and Johnson & Johnson in radiopharmaceuticals and bispecific antibodies, it is making strides in these areas.

The company is venturing into the burgeoning field of obesity drug research as well. This includes an oral incretin drug licensed last year and combinations of other hormone therapies that influence appetite and metabolism. While these are still in early to mid-stage development, they must prove competitive against established treatments like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound. Looking further ahead, AstraZeneca is exploring novel treatments for diseases, such as CAR-T cell therapies for autoimmune disorders.

Soriot emphasized the company’s commitment to innovation and sustained growth in a statement: “The breadth of our portfolio together with continued investment in innovation supports sustained growth well past the end of the decade.”

Despite the optimistic outlook, Welford advised investors to exercise caution. He noted that AstraZeneca lacks many immediate data readouts from experimental drugs that could quickly boost revenue, raising investor concerns about growth prospects beyond 2026. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the company’s proven track record in meeting its promises could lend credibility to its ambitious targets. The new drugs highlighted as pivotal for achieving these goals might eventually lead analysts to reevaluate their current opportunities.

This new chapter in AstraZeneca’s journey reflects both its resilience and ambition, as it pushes the boundaries of pharmaceutical innovation while navigating the complexities of a competitive market landscape.