Pfizer anticipates 8 blockbuster cancer drugs from 4 key areas: exec

Pfizer's internal projections indicate that more than eight of its cancer drugs have the potential to become blockbusters. However, the company is currently publicly targeting just eight by 2030, according to Suneet Varma, Pfizer Oncology's commercial president. At a recent investor event, Pfizer highlighted its aim to achieve eight blockbuster cancer drugs by 2030 but did not list specific products.

Varma explained that these blockbusters will emerge from Pfizer Oncology's four main therapeutic areas: breast, genitourinary, hematology, and thoracic cancers. The company's internal estimates suggest that, theoretically, more than eight drugs could reach blockbuster status, but Pfizer decided to commit to eight for now.

Pfizer is heavily investing in oncology, evidenced by its $43 billion acquisition of Seagen, a specialist in antibody-drug conjugates. This investment comes amid cost-cutting measures following declining sales from its COVID products. The Seagen acquisition also involved some consolidation, including layoffs in Switzerland and the closure of a manufacturing facility in Washington.

The oncology division is insulated from Pfizer's ongoing cost reductions as it has already completed its organizational adjustments and cost-containment efforts, according to Varma. Last December, Pfizer established oncology as a separate division, appointing Chris Boshoff as the chief oncology officer.

Regarding the commercial infrastructure, Varma stated that Pfizer Oncology has reached a scale that meets its current needs. Among the four focus areas, lung cancer is identified as the weakest link in Pfizer's portfolio. However, Varma believes lung cancer will evolve into a significant franchise as it achieves critical mass.

At the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting, Pfizer presented updated phase 3 results for its ALK inhibitor Lorbrena in treating advanced ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer. The drug showed promising results, with 60% of patients remaining disease-free after five years, compared to 8% who received Pfizer's older ALK drug, Xalkori. The data indicated an 81% reduction in disease progression or death and a 94% reduction in brain metastases progression compared to Xalkori.

Despite these impressive results, Lorbrena has not yet surpassed Roche's Alecensa in the first-line ALK treatment market. In 2023, Alecensa generated 1.5 billion Swiss francs in sales, while Lorbrena's sales were $539 million. One major barrier to Lorbrena's wider adoption is its neurotoxic side effects, such as seizures and cognitive changes, which have deterred some doctors from using it as a first-line treatment.

Varma remains optimistic about Lorbrena, acknowledging the need for extra therapy management but emphasizing its potential to add years to patients' lives. Pfizer is leveraging Seagen's expertise in managing complex side effects to improve Lorbrena's therapy management.

The addition of Seagen's antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) portfolio has also enhanced Pfizer's commercial capabilities in biologics. One key product is Padcev, a bladder cancer drug developed in partnership with Astellas, which Pfizer expects to achieve peak sales of over $3 billion, up from around $700 million last year.

Pfizer has split its genitourinary cancer team into two franchises, one focusing on prostate cancer, anchored by the blockbuster drug Xtandi, and the other on bladder and kidney cancers. Varma believes that the genitourinary franchise could surpass Pfizer's breast cancer portfolio by 2030, despite Xtandi's expected U.S. patent expiration in 2027.

In breast cancer, Pfizer's Ibrance has seen declining sales due to competition from Novartis and Eli Lilly. However, Varma believes Ibrance has stabilized, maintaining a significant market share. Pfizer's pipeline for breast cancer includes the selective CDK4 inhibitor atirmociclib and the estrogen receptor degrader vepdegestrant.

In hematology, Pfizer is challenging Johnson & Johnson with its BCMA-directed T-cell engager for multiple myeloma, Elrexfio. Seagen's expertise with Adcetris, a Hodgkin lymphoma ADC, is expected to support Pfizer in this competitive landscape.

Despite the confidence expressed in achieving eight cancer blockbusters by 2030, Varma did not specify which drugs might reach that milestone. Analysts from Guggenheim have identified potential candidates like Padcev, Elrexfio, atirmociclib, vepdegestrant, mevrometostat, disitamab vedotin, and sigvotatug vedotin.