Analysts forecast myeloma market to reach $33B by 2030, favoring one company

The multiple myeloma market is experiencing substantial growth, with Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) projecting sales to reach $33 billion by 2030—a significant increase from last year’s $23 billion. This market expansion is set against the backdrop of a competitive shift, where Johnson & Johnson (J&J) is expected to take the lead, overshadowing long-time leader Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS).

Currently, J&J and BMS are key players in the multiple myeloma market, commanding 91% of it in 2023. However, their futures look very different. By 2030, BI analysts predict J&J will dominate the market, while BMS's influence will wane. New entrants like Pfizer, Regeneron, Gilead, and Arcellx are anticipated to capture more market share, with GSK also potentially making a significant impact with its efforts to reintroduce Blenrep.

J&J’s confidence in its future market dominance is bolstered by its internal predictions that by the end of the decade, three out of four multiple myeloma patients could be on treatment regimens featuring its drugs. The company’s drug Darzalex is a major driver of this optimism. BI forecasts Darzalex sales to reach $14.7 billion by 2030. Although this projection is optimistic, it falls 12% short of the consensus among other analysts, reflecting concerns that price reductions mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2029 might affect the revenues from both Darzalex and its subcutaneous formulation, Darzalex Faspro.

J&J’s strong position is further reinforced by its significant roles in two critical therapeutic modalities: CAR-T cell therapy and bispecific antibodies. J&J's Carvykti stands out as the leading CAR-T therapy for multiple myeloma, outperforming BMS’ Abecma due to its superior efficacy. However, Carvykti is expected to face stiff competition starting in 2027 from Gilead-Arcellx’s anito-cel, with BI analysts predicting similar revenues of just over $3 billion by 2030.

In the bispecific antibody space, the J&J-Genmab collaboration that produced Darzalex has also led to the market introduction of Tecvayli. BI anticipates that Tecvayli will face challenges from Pfizer’s Elrexfio and Regeneron’s linvoseltamab, but it is expected to remain the top seller in 2030.

On the other hand, BMS's decline is notable. The company ascended to the top of the myeloma market after acquiring Celgene. However, the onset of generic versions of Revlimid has severely impacted this once-lucrative franchise, with sales plummeting nearly 40% last year. Despite Revlimid still generating over $5 billion in revenue in 2023, BI analysts forecast that the erosion of U.S. sales will be nearly complete by 2026.

BMS does have potential successors to Revlimid in the late stages of development. Nevertheless, analysts are skeptical that these new drugs will be able to recover the lost revenues, even if they demonstrate superior safety and efficacy profiles. This suggests that the dominant era of thalidomide analogs in the multiple myeloma market might be nearing its end.

In summary, the multiple myeloma market is poised for significant growth and transformation over the next decade. Johnson & Johnson is forecasted to emerge as the leading force, driven by strong sales of Darzalex and promising advancements in CAR-T and bispecific antibody therapies. Meanwhile, Bristol Myers Squibb is expected to experience a sharp decline, primarily due to the impact of generic competition on Revlimid, with new competitors set to reshape the market landscape.

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